Tuesday, July 17, 2007

British Open Prediction

Below are the current European Order of Merit rankings:

1 Henrik STENSON
2 Niclas FASTH
4 Retief GOOSEN
5 Richard STERNE
6 Justin ROSE
8 Ernie ELS
9 Grégory HAVRET
10 Paul CASEY

I believe the British Open Championship will come from this list.

Of the big Americans, Tiger is due for a clunker in a major, The Open is the least favorite of the majors for Phil and Furyk missed the cut if five of the last six Opens (coming in 4th last year, tying his best performance). As for the big international players, Singh is past the point of being best in the world, it is possible Adam Scott could win it, but I won't bet on it, and Geoff Ogilvy has been middling in non-World Golf Championship events.

As for the Order of Merit list, I'm eliminating Cabrera (still celebrating the U.S. Open win), Havret (one win at the right time does not a favorite make) and Goosen (I believe the crash at Pinehurst in 2005 destroyed Goosen for major championships).

Els has played well on both sides of the Atlantic ocean, but not great and there are whispers he isn't fully healthy. The crushing weight of expectations should cause Montgomerie to crack on Sunday, if he is in conention. Stenson peaked early in the year, he doesn't seem to be as sharp as he was when he won the Match Play Championship.

Justin Rose and Paul Casey have played well in majors recently; they should be in the mix. But they will fall short of Niclas Fasth.

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